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Surprised by Backtesting Results - Looking for insight

Last post 10-22-2009, 16:28 by kardenmiller. 0 replies.
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  •  10-22-2009, 16:28 30984

    Surprised by Backtesting Results - Looking for insight

    After many weeks of backtesting the systems that came with MS11 and then buying the Performance Plus plug-in and testing those systems, I am amazed to find that none of these systems seem to perform as well as the very basic logic of buying on, say, a 30-day high and then placing, say, a 20% stop loss. Is that possible, or must I be doing something completely wrong in my backtesting?

    At first I tested on major market indexes like SPX, RUT, etc. Then someone suggested that technical systems do better on more volatile vehicles, so I moved my testing to the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100. Still the same. The included systems in MS11 & the PS Plus group seem to generate many more trades and net a lower return. Is that possible, or am I right to question these results? Does anyone out there have system logic they would suggest I compare to the very basic going long on H>Ref(HHV(H,30),-1) mentioned above?

    Looking for insight.

    /kim
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