Anyone watch the MetaStock webinar yesterday about the new VST addon? I just installed it now and it looks very good.

Can someone help me setup the VST addon to test a reversion to the mean system?

Download link here:

Visual Strategy Trader

.

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Lai

Hi Laisze,

Yes, I downloaded  the VST video and addon and found it to be excellent.
I have inserted some crude code to filter the entry and have increased the win rate a little.

To use your own system, and test it, you would need to purchase the VSTPro.
Looking at the Pro version info I can see it would be a top rated system development tool, I have 2  addons from Jose and the one I use all the time is the URSC kit.

I have used the VST  Exploration on the Australian ASX top 100 stocks and some of the results look very good.

Using the default settings ..... Code            Profit/Risk Ratio
                                              IPL                      5.7-1
                                              FMG                    6.7-1
                                              AOE                     6.5-1

Also the GOLD  EFT gave good results with a Profit/Risk Ratio of 4.7-1

The big advantage of this plug-in is it is totaly VISUAL.

Just remember to REFRESH each time you make a change.

david

In the previous post I entered the wrong results, should read.....................

                                            Code            Profit/Risk Ratio
                                              IPL                     9.0-1
                                              FMG                 12.8-1
                                              AOE                  7.8-1

Sorry for the mistake.

david

12.8 to 1 profit/risk ratio? Surely that can't be right!

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Lai

Laisze,

I have done so much testing using the VST.  I can not find my original results.

From using the VST to test many stocks on the Australian ASX I am becoming more familar
with it and  some stocks can produce good results.

Now that I have used the VST for about a week I did a new test on FMG to see if I could replicate the 12 - 1 and was surprised to find I could improve the numbers.

Start 01/01/2005

Total Profit  487.5%
Max Risk      23.1%
Profit/Risk Ratio  21.1 - 1

I added a filter to reference the main index that keeps me out of trades when the main
market trend is down.

In the next few weeks a new version should be released, "VST Plus", similar to the VST Pro but
without the Market Filter and Optimizer so will be very affordable I believe.

In the next day or two I will try to upload the chart of FMG to a file sharing site so you can take a look. I will post the info when I do.

Using the VST is easy but as with any worthwhile project it all takes a little time.

david

Thank you very much, David, please post your chart soon. Those are truly amazing results.

What I cannot believe is that something like the VST seems to go almost totally unnoticed here! I mean, profitable systems are the reason we are here, right?

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Lai

This is strictly to test market risk based on past hindsight results. It gives you a quantifiable risk reward level. It is a trading system based on ATR bands.

Laisze,

Have uploaded the files....

http://www.4shared.com/account/dir/4naBADcw/sharing.html?rnd=23

The system is open coded so some forum members may be able to use another entry
system eg. Breakout or RMO, I added a filter and thats about my limit with coding.

When I purchase the VST Plus I will add more charts.

Once I can enter my own systems,  fine tune and see the results at the click of the REFRESH button
I will be able to better evaluate the VST system.

I don't know about the level of interest in the free VST, maybe if Elliott, Fibonacci or Gann was in the
title?
I too would like to see some of the experenced forum member giving it a solid test and posting the results (good & bad).

david

The VST having been developed by Jose Silva, you can be assured that it has been tested.

My questions are 1: does it work with other dll's? 2: The use of CRE Technology seems to be curve fitting and over optimizing?

I do like the risk to reward aspect of the entries.

The price of the free version,can't complain there.

The VST Pro for 2 ounces of Gold is a little steep.

David, thank you very much for the impressive VST charts. I am amazed to see a system which seems impervious to downtrends. Would I be imposing too much if I asked you for more information about your custom filter? You can email me directly at laisze2001@yahoo.com if posting any of your code here is inappropriate.

I emailed Mr Silva about my worries about the VST not being a real system, and his reply came back surprisingly quickly:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hi Lai,

Thanks for your interest in the Visual Strategy Trader and for the forum link.

I understand your concerns, so let me assure you that both the free and Professional versions are full trading systems, and neither of them use hindsight in any way or form.
The "FormulaPrimer" poster at the Equis forum seems inexperienced with technical analysis and doesn't seem to understand ATR-based bands, as there is no element of hindsight whatsoever in the Average True Range. He also doesn't get it that risk is only one component of the VST - profit & risk are like night & day, i.e., they compliment each other.

The other poster (Henry) should be aware that the CRE technology has nothing to do with optimization or curve-fitting, but is all about saving an incredible amount of time by instantly seeing Profit/Risk results after any parameter/strategy changes. I also think that he may have the programming skills to help you with your custom VST system request.

Re optimization issues, please see the Intelligent Strategy Optimizer section of the VSTpro manual:
http://www.metastocktools.com/vst/manual/index.html#opt

I'm not able to post in the Equis forum, but you are most welcome to post any questions you may have re the VST at the Traders' Consortium forum.
http://tradersconsortium.com/community/index.php?showtopic=28387


Regards,
Jose Silva

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

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Lai

Like all disclaimers. Past results does not necessary mean profitable results. There is inherent risk in trading. Everything is hindsight since the results are expressed with past data. Forecasting like Elliot wave analysis with all its faults is used as potential market movement. To answer experience I have more than these program sellers. There is a difference between a programmer and a trader. I am a trader and economist and know what works and what does not. Read past posts and you'll notice that pretty quickly. Data that has occurred to get answers is hindsight and fitted and forecasting systems like Elliot Wave analysis tries to predict levels and forecasting. If there was a future profit to risk reward feature then it would be be forecasting and since the system has past risk to reward only it is hindsight. Unless it is stating that the past risk reward is what is expected in the future. Now I would like that crystal ball. Don't get me wrong. I'm on record saying these programmers are excellent. I'm stating the difference between forecasting and past data after the fact signals. Every system is only as good as its user, which makes every system the same great results for some and bad for others. Since 95% of all traders are losers that makes 95% all people who use any system losers. So all systems have only 5% rate of success with all cumulative users. That is just market statistical fact and the natural way people fall on the bell curve and we all strive to be the 5-10% out liars outside the mean.
This system is no better or worse than any other system, if it fits the needs of the end user it is all a programmer can do.

For anyone trading the Hang Seng, this is a very impressive VST chart.

I think that you can request additional VST charts there or at the VST forum.

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Lai

All forecasting are using past data to predict the future.
But in technical analysis, hindsight means using present known result to "forecast" the past.

VST is a very impressive system.It quantifies the entries vs the amount of risk at the time of the trade.I have to give Jose Silva a tip of the cap for sharing this. It is far more impressive and robust a system than any add-on that equis sells.

I checked out VST as well, and was totally amazed by what Jose Silva has been able to do with this add-on.

Recently I have been struggling to extract meaningful information from the "Enhanced System Tester", and while VST is very different tool, i think it is vastly superior to EST in terms of the quality of reward/risk information that it provides - although only one ticker at a time, and for a particular set of volatility breakout systems only. No complaints though... VST is quite outstanding for a free tool.

Like Henry, i found VST Pro too expensive for me. Hopefully the report about the forthcoming release of a more affordable VST Plus system is correct, and hopefully it will allow the user to test and compare their own system variations, by scanning multiple securities at a time.

 

When I was experimenting with the entry/exit signals eg.. 6/1, 5/3 etc.
I entered 3/3 by mistake on a stock and the result was an entry but NO EXIT.

This displays a Buy/Hold result.

I have uploaded some charts.......

http://www.4shared.com/account/dir/4naBADcw/sharing.html?sId=VXRvce1w8lD1gFCy

This did not work on all stocks but may be of interest to some forum members.

I found it useful to see the results in a visual form on the charts as sometimes
you do see buy/hold compared to different trading strategies.

david

Re my last post about Buy/Hold results..........

Sorry, I had not noticed the Buy/Hold option in the "VST Profit Long" indicator.
Below is a reply from Jose.....

"You can also choose Buy & Hold as an option from the exit price of the VST profit indicator.

The VSTpro (and upcoming VSTplus) offers the choice to select custom Date & Time periods for system signals, as well as for Buy & Hold. For example, one could test for Buy & Hold for date period June 7 - June 25, and (for intraday charts) time period 9:30am - 1:15pm within those dates. "

david

I have uploaded some charts to this address…..

http://www.4shared.com/account/dir/4naBADcw/sharing.html?sId=Tf7SQLuGhwv1hosH

Using a template that allows the insertion of your own Entry/Exit code in to the VST.

Out of interest I entered the code for a system that performs well on the ASX stocks
when the market is trending up.

The system is called TechTrader  and some forum members may know of the code used.

Entry = Cross(H,Ref(HHV(H,10),-1)) AND H > Mov(C,40,E) AND HHVBars(H,70)=0;

Exit = Cross(Ref(Mov(L,180,E),-1),C);

The stocks selected were from a group discussed on another forum this week
and were thought to have performed OK in the current market conditions.
The results are mixed

Testing a % stop-go indicator with the VST Custom Strategy.

Recently I noticed  a bookmarked web page,  http://stocata.org/metastock/stop_trail_perc.html
and decided to test the formula with the VST Custom Strategy. The website has several other
MetaStock formula that could be tested with the VST.

As with many indicators they work fine when the chart is trending nicely up or down but perform
poorly on choppy or sideways  movement.

I needed to use this indicator with the VST and it will not plot +1/-1  so I used the Cross
function in MetaStock create the +1/-1 plot.

I have posted several chart to My VST Charts blog, and I now have the VSTPro so I am able to post both VST Custom and VSTPro charts.

Original code.....

perc:=Input("Trailing Loss % :",0,100,14);
loss:=C*perc/100;
trail:=
If(C>PREV AND Ref(C,-1)>PREV,
Max(PREV,C-loss),
If(C<PREV AND Ref(C,-1)<PREV,
Min(PREV,C+loss),
If(C>PREV,C-loss,C+loss)));
Trail


Below is updated code sent from Jose Silva @ metastocktools.com

As for the stop code, the formula below plots identically and faster (for explorations) with two of the seven PREV functions taken out:

---8<----------------------------------

perc:=Input("Trailing Loss %",0,100,14);

loss:=C*perc/100;
trail:=
 If(LLV(C,2)>PREV,Max(PREV,C-loss),
 If(HHV(C,2)<PREV,Min(PREV,C+loss),
 If(C>PREV,C-loss,C+loss)));

entry:=Cross(C,trail);
exit:=Cross(trail,C);
entry-exit

---8<----------------------------------


This formula is even faster with three PREV functions taken out:

---8<----------------------------------
{Input}
perc:=Input("Trailing Loss %",0,100,14);

{Stops}
loss:=C*perc/100;
stopLong:=If(C<PREV,C-loss,Max(C-loss,PREV));
stopShort:=If(C>PREV,C+loss,Min(C+loss,PREV));

{Signals}
In:=Cross(C,Ref(stopShort,-1));
Out:=Cross(Ref(stopLong,-1),C);
Init:=Cum(In+Out>-1)=1;
InInit:=Cum(In)=1;
flag:=BarsSince(Init OR In)
 < BarsSince(Init OR Out)+InInit;
signals:=(InInit AND Alert(InInit=0,2)
 OR flag AND Alert(flag=0,2))
 -(flag=0 AND Alert(flag,2));

{Display}
signals
---8<----------------------------------

I decided to use the VSTPro to test the ASX-XJO using Lunar Cycles after reading a thread on the Aussie Stock Forums.

This is the link to the PDF document with details of a study on the Lunar Cycle and trading.
http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/17324418/945690453/name/RBS%2BMoon%2BPhase.pdf

The best test results for the ASX-XJO was using Entry=FM / Exit=NM.

I have posted several charts to the VST charts blog.

Below is the Lunar Cycle indicator downloaded from Jose Silva metastocktools.com.

MetaStock -> Tools -> Indicator Builder -> New
-> copy & paste complete formula below.


============
Lunar cycles
============
---8<-----------------------------------------

{Full/New/Q1/Q3 Moon signals indicator Mk XV.

 Plots:
  +1 signal on Full Moon; -1 on New Moon;
  +0.5 on first Quarter;  -0.5 on last Quarter.
 Accurate to within 2 hours every 19 years.

 Signals that fall on holidays or weekends
  are plotted on the next trading day.
 Use the signal advance input to view
  approaching signals.

  Adj lunar signals to market's local Time Zone
 (generally add 1hr for Daylight Saving Time):

   New Zealand: +12hrs
     Australia: +10
         Japan:  +9
       SE Asia:  +8
Thai/Indonesia:  +7
         India:  +5.5
         Dubai:  +4
        Moscow:  +3
        Europe:  +1
 UK & Portugal:   0
       USA, NY:  -5
       Chicago:  -6

 http://www.travel.com.hk/region/timezone.htm

 Copyright © 2001-2009 Jose Silva.
 The grant of this license is for personal use
  only - no resale or repackaging allowed.
 All code remains the property of Jose Silva.
 http://www.metastocktools.com }

{ User inputs }
TZ:=Input("Market's local Time Zone?  [-12hrs  to +12hrs]",-12,12,-5);
shift:=Input("Advance signal by x calendar days",-30,30,0);
plot:=Input("Plot Q1 and Q3 (half) signals?  [1]Yes,  [0]No",0,1,0);

{ Lunar cycle length in days (synodic month) }
LunarMonth:=29.53059;
offset:=4.86;

{ Calendar engine }
y:=Year()-(Month()<3);
leap:=Int(y/4)-Int(y/100)+Int(y/400);
mth:=Int((2+153*(Month()-3+12*(Month()<3)))/5);
dayNr:=DayOfMonth()+mth+y*365+leap-657382
 -offset-TZ/24+shift;

{ New/Q1/Full/Q3 Moon cycles }
NM:=Frac((DayNr+LunarMonth/2)/LunarMonth);
Q1:=Frac((DayNr+LunarMonth/4)/LunarMonth);
FM:=Frac(DayNr/LunarMonth);
Q3:=Frac((DayNr-LunarMonth/4)/LunarMonth);

{ Lunar cycle signals }
cycle:=FM-NM;
FM:=cycle<0 AND Alert(cycle>0,2);
NM:=-(cycle>0 AND Alert(cycle<0,2));
cycle:=Q1-Q3;
Q1:=(cycle<0 AND Alert(cycle>0,2))*.5;
Q3:=(cycle>0 AND Alert(cycle<0,2))*-.5;
signals:=If(plot=1,NM+Q1+FM+Q3,NM+FM);

{ Plot Lunar signals in own window }
signals

---8<-----------------------------------------