Tips & Tricks

Surprised by Backtesting Results - Looking for insight

kardenmiller — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:11:16 GMT

After many weeks of backtesting the systems that came with MS11 and then buying the Performance Plus plug-in and testing those systems, I am amazed to find that none of these systems seem to perform as well as the very basic logic of buying on, say, a 30-day high and then placing, say, a 20% stop loss. Is that possible, or must I be doing something completely wrong in my backtesting?

At first I tested on major market indexes like SPX, RUT, etc. Then someone suggested that technical systems do better on more volatile vehicles, so I moved my testing to the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100. Still the same. The included systems in MS11 & the PS Plus group seem to generate many more trades and net a lower return. Is that possible, or am I right to question these results? Does anyone out there have system logic they would suggest I compare to the very basic going long on H>Ref(HHV(H,30),-1) mentioned above?

Looking for insight.

/kim

Top Forex Trading Tips

Markmuffin — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:47:40 GMT

Investing in foreign exchange markets has traditionally been the domain of large institutions and corporate to reduce currency risk.

However,the forex markets have evolved significantly and increasingly are being seen as a source of returns for investors. Institutional investors such as hedge funds have played an important role in this development but as with most markets, retail investors are catching up and looking at forex as an interesting asset class with strong diversification and return-generating opportunities.

Here are some Useful Tips, which I follow and like to share with you:

Practice before you start trading with real money

Identify the events which moves currency markets

Like any asset class, there are a number of factors that drive currency performance. A country’s macroeconomic situation can have a major influence – economic data releases, policy decisions and political events can change an economist’s outlook on the country, and therefore the currency. There are also technical factors such as interest rates, equity markets and international trade which may have an impact. Spend time getting to know these.

Understand the strategies

Yes there is a method to the madness. As a trader you need to be aware of three crucial forex trading strategies which are often used by currency traders; the carry, momentum, and value trade. Momentum tracks the direction of currency markets; the carry strategy sees investors selling currencies with low interest rates and buying those with high rates; and the valuation strategy takes a position based on the investor’s view of a currency’s value. However, the strategies that you use are up to you.

Manage risk

Like with any investment decision, you must decide what risk you’re willing to accept. Ask yourself, “how much am I prepared to lose on this position?” If you don’t have a convincing or comfortable answer then you should rethink the trade. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. Think about how you can mitigate your downside risk; make use of FX trading strategies such as stop losses or limit orders.

Stick to what you know

There are literally hundreds of currency pairs that can be traded in the currency markets, each of which have their own characteristics and considerations to understand and analyse. If you’re participating in the market on a part time and non professional basis, it is probably better to concentrate on just a few pairs and commit to thorough and robust research on those, rather than superficial research on the many. Some key things to consider when analysing a currency pair are its liquidity, transaction costs (the spread) and its volatility. As a general rule, major currencies usually have better liquidity, tighter spreads and lower volatility, versus emerging market currencies which have poor liquidity, wide spreads and volatile movements.

Plan your trade and trade your plan

It’s one thing to have a plan, it’s quite another to execute it. It is important in FX currency trading to not get caught up in the moment – the markets are fast moving and in the short term can be unpredictable.

Market Research

It’s important to stay up to date. All currencies move quickly and checking the price once a week is not going to help you make strong long term returns. It is helpful to use an online provider that gives you up to the minute data and statistics. Traders use this data to constantly assess their trading positions.

Keep your emotions in check

Like many important decisions, it is vital to keep emotion out of any trading decision you make. If you’re upset about missing out on an opportunity and want to trade yourself better, or want to go ‘off-piste’ to make up for a loss earlier in the day – reconsider, because you’ve got the warning signs of someone about to make a rash and irrational decision. If you do feel yourself getting emotionally involved in a particular trade, take a deep breath, review your strategy, and establish how such a decision will affect your overall approach before going anywhere near the ‘execute’ button.

Don’t expect to win on every trade

That may not sound like much of a sales pitch, but even the most successful of traders don’t win on every trade. What they do have is a robust plan and long-term strategy which carefully considers the risks. So don’t necessarily be disheartened if a trade doesn’t go our way; review why it went wrong and see if there is anything to learn from the experience.

Consider diversifying your portfolio

version 10, interesting facet

hayseed — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 05:10:16 GMT

lookin over version 10 now.... if your the type that just-gotta-have, it's available in download form today and cd in a few weeks.... right now only the qc version is available.... version 10 for esignal due out later....

first thing i noticed was it contains a prior unseen facet.... a license manager .... when you install the version 10 there is a strong possibility that any prior versions on the same computer will have their licenses removed at least temporarily.... even if you have renamed the folders to equis9, equis9.1 or so on.... will look into that deeper later....

a standout new feature would be the new style chart periodicity almost unlimited format.... you can have 90 minute charts , 300 minute(5 hour) charts and even 233 minute charts... a fibonaccier's dream....

the advertised indicator, expert and template by rahul mohindar look very promising.... thanks rahul.....

i also noticed roy's subtle suggestions at making the windows resizable finally bore fruit.... all the editors, expert, indicator, explorations , can be resized to full screen.... speaking of the explorer, it now has 12 columns....

there are several other neat features that escape me at the moment.... all in all, equis's version 10 product page really is under reporting the long awaited changes ........ more on it later......

in the fwiw department , still only 6 inputs allowed and poor zigzag is still last on the list..... hey, we can't have everything......h

to give the resizing windows some scope, ordinairly i could see about 17 indicators at one time, same for experts, explorations..... now i can see over 70 at a time..... thats nice.....

another wish list item was for meta to remember prior placement of the indicator, exploration and such windows... even to the extent of placing those windows on a second monitor not associated with the meta program..... it now remembers and replaces the window in the last used location.... an important reminder would be, before scaling back to one monitor from many, be sure to place all meta windows on the single monitor before shutting down meta..... this is only an issue when reverting to fewer monitors......

to give the indicator builder window some scope, before i could see only about 8 or 9 lines..... now i can see over 50 and those 50 span the complete monitors width.... should lower my use of notepad considerably.....

the data window now contains the experts trend, if one is applied.....

Help required

perfecttip — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 18:46:43 GMT

Is this possible ?
What I am looking for is automation of the stock picking process. Please allow me to discuss in detail the aspects I am looking for.

1. Camarilla levels shall be calculated as per the following equations :
H5 = (H/L)*C
H4 = [1.1*(H-L)/2]+C
H3 = [1.1*(H-L)/4]+C
H2 = [1.1*(H-L)/6]+C
H1 = [1.1*(H-L)/12]+C

L1 = C-[1.1*(H-L)/12]
L2 = C-[1.1*(H-L)/6]
L3 = C-[1.1*(H-L)/4]
L4 = C-[1.1*(H-L)/2]
L5 = C-(H5-C)

2.These levels must be used to develop a Custom Indicator, a Custom Exploration and a Custom Expert Advisor.
3.All of the above must take care of trading holidays even those which fall within the week.
4.Custom Indicator : An integrated indicator which will display the weekly and daily Camarilla levels when plotted on any chart irrespective of whether it is an RealTime intraday chart, a daily chart or a weekly chart with easily recognisable colour coding. Also a seperate indicator for monthly Camarilla levels.
5.Custom Exploration : Three seperate explorations (daily, weekly and monthly) to find out which stocks are trading near any of the Camarila levels.
6.Custom Expert Advisor : An advisor which when attached to a chart, whether its an RT intraday chart, a weekly chart or a monthly chart, alerts with a visual and audio alert when the stock trades near any of the Daily, Weekly or Monthly Camarilla levels.
7.Changes necessary in the coding if the numbers (2,4,6,12) in the equations are to me modified.
8.System tester.
9.Passowrd protection (of course should be know to me) for all of the above.

Explorer

shanthi — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:19:18 GMT

Can any one help me to create a explorer for finding securities matching Marubozu chart pattern

Outlook Express and Alerts

Jennifer A — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:07:04 GMT

When using Email Alerts with Outlook Express, I am required to confirm that I want the mail to be sent. This means I cannot get Alerts unattended. How can I fix this?

1.   In Outlook Express, go to Tools | Options | Security | Virus Protection.
2.   Here, you need to uncheck the box labeled 'Warn me when another application tries to send email as me.'
3.   The alerts will now be sent automatically.

RMO exit swing signal

mjdesmond3001 — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 20:35:13 GMT

so im looking at other posts and it seems that the exit swing signal is a type of RSI or even a stochrsi. has anyone tried trading it with overbought oversold levels. i know thats not what it was intended for, but what if you sold when the indicator crossed below 80 and bought as it crossed above 20?

MTS with different time frame for one stock?

vosurb — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 13:09:24 GMT

Hello, is it possible to organize mechanical trade system in Metastock which will make intraday trade orders on short time frame but initialy considering situation on bigger time frame? thanx

RMO Shape & Size Doesn't Matter? Why Not?

black_dog — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 02:13:40 GMT

according to the RMO training, the size and shape of the RMO doesn't matter? why use an histogram if all you need to know is if the RMO is above or below zero? you'd think the RMO value would be useful in determining whether a security is gaining or losing strength; it's hard to believe a RMO value of 15 is just as strong as a value of 1. any input would be appreciated!

Selecting securities for an exploration

snoopy — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 16:38:29 GMT

Is there an easy way of adding securities for an exploration other than having to select the securities in each directory ? For a large number of directories this can become very tedious.

Is there an easier way of selecting a whole directory tree ??

regards
david

Cannot get into line drawing mode

taisuk — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 07:53:27 GMT

I have been using Metastock 9 for some time now, but suddenly, I have found that I am not able to use the line drawing mode. Every time I try to drag the cursor into the smart chart area the cursor jumps out of the chart, and it has an arrowed cross attached to it (as in the zoom mode). How can I overcome this problem?

Max Volume

mdimen — Wed, 20 May 2009 03:44:08 GMT

Does anyone know the maximum volume (number of digits) MS 10 will support? I'm up to 9 digits, would like to go to 10 to match current DJI volume levels (OK, they've gone over 10B, but if I could approach 10B I'd be happier). When I try a manual x10 on the volume, I get an Invalid Adjustment (It will not be performed) message.

Newbie - Genaral Questions regarding MS

santhoshml — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 06:22:52 GMT

Hello All,

I am a new member to MS and to this message board. I have few questions regarding MS tool.

1. How can we get a buy and sell signal using candlestick Expert advisor ?

2. How to see the symbol of a security when the graph is opened (It only shows the complete name of the security which gives very little idea of the symbol unless lookup on other sites) ?

3. How to find the sector of the security easily using Metastock ?

4. Resistance and Support don't look appropriate.Is there anything I need to do for them to be very accurate ?

5. When I run John Murphy Confirmed Entry Signal Indicator explorer on all the securites of NASDAQ, none of them qualify and everything appear in the rejects tab. It gives the following message for most of the securities "Error in column A: An MSX DLL is reporting an internal error. Referenced DLL: "MurphyMorris.IdentifyHST" DLL Message: Data array is too small". For most of the securities I have data from 1/1/2000. The above message is little surprising to me.

Thanks in advance for everyone.
-- Santhosh ML

rahul's rmo

hayseed — Fri, 20 Oct 2006 00:59:31 GMT

lately been lookin at rahul's deal.... after watching both training videos several times a couple things come to mind...

first it should be said rahul's attitude was truely refreshing.... quite different than some of the prior traders equis has put on ..... rahul seems to have both knowledge and compassion....

really didn't reconigize the equis guy's voice, but he did a very good job describing the system.... whether or not someone has any interest in v10, both of those videos are well worth the time to see as both go beyond the system and include trading insights....

as you might expect the indicators , expert, exploration and such are password protected..... but lets don't throw in the towel just yet .....

if you watched the video you probably noticed the very round about way the exploration was carried out.... with password protected codes thats how it often has to be....

if we really want to maximize rahul's deal we must create our own explorations and experts that match his... then we are free to work efficiently and with latitude..... both are easy enough to create but there is one change i'd suggest...... best results are obtained with exploring 1000 records..... the minimum record setting's suggested are far to small.... try exploring for cross(Fml( "Rahul Mohindar Osc (RMO)"), 0) and you see what i mean..... use at least 1000 records....

i was using meta 9 here but v10 has twice the columns so you'll have twice the potential....

now for the exploration....

you can see below column a will locate the new buys in 1 shot, same goes for new sells in column b ....

the system uses 3 conditions, so if we wanted to find some possibly fixin-to-be buys, column c will locate securities with 2 of the 3 conditions and column d same for sell side.....

columns e and f are just ways we could use rahul's indicators in combination with other indicators .......

the training video mentioned scaning in realtime.... that can be slow but often worth it.... as a rule i always figure on less than 30 seconds per security..... speeds can vary drastically...... seems like the exploration below took about 30 minutes to scan realtime the s&p100 on one hour bars with esignal as provider....

so what it boils down to is this, we can create explorations that will combine all 6 of the systems explorations into a single shot exploration and still have room to spare..... and those extra columns will come in handy merging rahul's indicators with others..... by the same token we can recreate the expert to further include other conditions.....h

Exploration notes www.viratechindia.com

Col A: new buy

a:= (Fml( "Rahul Mohindar Osc (RMO)") > 0) AND

(Fml( "SwingTrd 2")>0) AND (Fml( "SwingTrd 2") > Fml(

"SwingTrd 3"));

a=1 AND Ref(a,-1)=0

Col B: new sell

a:= (Fml( "Rahul Mohindar Osc (RMO)") < 0 )AND (Fml(

"SwingTrd 2")<0 ) AND ( Fml( "SwingTrd 2") < Fml(

"SwingTrd 3"));

a=1 AND Ref(a,-1)=0

Col C: almost a buy

a:= Fml( "Rahul Mohindar Osc (RMO)") > 0;

aa:= Fml( "SwingTrd 2")>0;

aaa:= Fml( "SwingTrd 2") > Fml( "SwingTrd 3");

a + aa + aaa =2;

Col D: almost a sell

a:= Fml( "Rahul Mohindar Osc (RMO)") < 0;

aa:= Fml( "SwingTrd 2")<0;

aaa:= Fml( "SwingTrd 2") < Fml( "SwingTrd 3");

a + aa + aaa =2;

Col E: rmo positive and macd cross buy

Fml( "Rahul Mohindar Osc (RMO)") > 0 AND

Cross(MACD(),Mov(MACD(),9,E));

Col F: rmo negative and macd cross sell

Fml( "Rahul Mohindar Osc (RMO)") < 0 AND

Cross(Mov(MACD(),9,E),MACD());

Filter colA OR colB OR colC OR colD OR colE OR colF

Filter enabled Yes

Periodicity Daily

Records required 1000

Weekly data and system testing

stockradar — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 04:54:38 GMT

I am trying to do a simulation on weekly data but am unsure how to create the weekly data items to use

Entering a LIST of stocks for an intraday model?

chestnut — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 21:01:22 GMT

In the Enhanced System Tester, is it possible to enter a LIST of stocks (as opposed to each one at a time) when setting up a new simulation? I am specifically talking about an INTRADAY model that directly reads data from the supplier (as opposed to a local file).

I know I can do this with local files by putting the desired symbols into a local folder and selecting all of the symbols from that folder. But how would I do this if I am accessing the data from the vendor rather than using a local file? I have 50 stocks I want to run in a simulation and can't see typing them in one-at-a-time every time I run the simulation. (I know it saves them, but I run other simulations with other stocks, so the list keeps changing...)

Thx!

Commissions

BigFish — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 13:32:54 GMT

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

I am using MS Version 10.0.

Could you please, somebody give me a brilliant idea of how to solve this? I believe that it is an system limitation.!! Easy to be implementated for futures software deliveries.
Well, I got an problem of how to set up a commission (%) based on profits instead of based on total value, as currently implemented at MS? I will try to give an example of this trick situation:

Initial equity: $1,000

Entry Commission : 0,015%

Exit Commission: 15%

Suppose that we are trading all initials $1,000 !

When the long position is entered, the 0.015% entry commission is subtracted from the $1,000 initial equity, allowing for a total investment of $999.85 The security's price then increases 10%, which creates $99.98 of profit (i.e., a 10% gain on the $999.85 invested). The exit commission of 15% (calculated only based on profits) is then subtracted from the $99.98 profit, leaving $84.98 of after-commission profits. The $84.98 profit is then added to the $999.85 equity, for a total equity of $1,084.83.

Multiple tests – Reports

Heidi B — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 21:22:10 GMT

I ran 4 system tests but there is only one simulation, where are the other 3 tests?

If you select more than one test and run them all at once, all the selected tests are part of the same simulation. If you look at the report for the simulation, you will see that all the tests' results are included in the one report.

How to change the color of text in the chart title bar

Heidi B — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 18:14:48 GMT

How do I change the color of the words on the title bar of a chart?

This is a windows setting.

1. Left click onto the Windows Start button.

2. Select Settings

3. Select Control Panel

4. Double click on Display Properties

5. Select the Appearance tab

6. Change the Item field to Inactive Title Bar

7. Make the color change to the Font color field and click OK.

8. Keep in mind this is a windows setting and will affect all programs

Updating Local Data Files Manually

Heidi B — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 18:09:03 GMT

The following directions are for Reuters Datalink

Updating the Local Data Files follows a similar format as to creating the local data securities.

Securities in the US Database are set up by Symbol not Name

Open The Downloader
Go Tools - Update Symbol Database (Generally updated around the 7th of each month)
Once completed, Close The Downloader and Reopen
Go to File - New - Security
Browse to the first folder you wish to update
Click on lookup
Go to the Group & Type for the folder your updating
(i.e.) Updating c:\MetaStock Data\Stocks US\A-D
You would select the Type Stocks - Common
You would select Group - All
For symbol you would type A,B,C,D
Click on Select All
Click on Ok
Click on Create
Browse to the Next folder
Click on Lookup
Repeat remaining steps until finished
On your last folder instead of clicking create, click on OK

Tired of Fighting ST_DATA

pwarnk — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:17:02 GMT

Install SQL Express 2005, it is free, DO NOT intall SQL Express 2008 it will not work

Make you patch it to SP2 for SQL Express 2005.

Make a copy of ST_DATA.mdb as a back up

Then Open ST_DATA in access 2007

Select Database Tools

Click on SQL Server

Port the tables to your new localhost server

Make sure you check off the box that says save password

Done, no more disk space limits

FYI the code that actually writes to the database is very poorly writen so your sims will actually run slower.

I would be happy to help Equis out with this for credit only if they sent me the source code

Metastock Pro – Convert – 1 minute to 5 minute

Heidi B — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:22:33 GMT

Metastock Pro – Convert – 1 minute to 5 minute

How can I convert 1 minute data to 5 minute data?

You will not be able to do this with the Convert feature in The Downloader. The convert feature converts the files into the same time format just in a new file. However you could use the Date Compression and the Copy and Paste features to do this as follows:

Start MetaStock Professional.

Display a 1 minute chart.

Click Format | X-Axis.

Click the Compression tab.

Select Intra-day 5 minute and click OK. The chart will now appear as a 5 minute chart.

Right click the 5 minute price graph and select Copy from the menu that appears.

Start The DownLoader.

Click File | New | Security.

Type in a Folder for the new security. You can use the default folder name. You can also type in a folder name that does not exist. The new folder name will be made automatically when the new file is created.

Type a name for the security into the Name field.

Type the ticker symbol for this security, into the Symbol field.

Set the First Date column to same first date in the daily file.

Set the periodicity column to Intra-day and Interval to 5 minute.

Click the Datasheet button.

Now open your spreadsheet and highlight the data you want to copy. Right click and select Copy.

Highlight the first empty Date cell in The DownLoader file. Right click and select Paste.

You should now see the 5 minute values in the file.

Click File | Save to save this file

True PreMarket and AfterMarket intraday feeds?

chestnut — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:13:41 GMT

I am probably missing something, but is there a way to see the TRUE PreMarket (<9:30AM ET) and After Market (>4:00PM ET) data for stocks in Meta Pro 10 Intraday? When I pull up a chart, all I see are the main trading hours. I found a setting that allows you to lump *all* of the "extra market" data into a single bar (presumably at the beginning and end of the day). But what about displaying the true, real-time information?

I use eSignal as a live datafeed and can see them in that platform. So they are clearly available. Any reason I don't seem to be able to get this in Meta? Am I missing a setting perhaps in my chart?

Thanks!

Metastock Loop

Bulli — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 01:45:52 GMT

A limited Loop but better than nothing:

http://pawinsa.com/Tidbits/MetaStock.html

Regards,

Bulli

MetaStock Indicator - Ted Spread

Heidi B — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 17:13:01 GMT

MetaStock – Indicators – Ted Spread

Do you have a symbol for the Ted Spread?

We do not have a symbol for the Ted Spread; however Reuters Datalink users who have the World Wide Indices Data Package and Futures Data Package can create a custom formula to get the Ted Spread.

Unfortunately at this time we do not have the ability to get the Ted Spread for users of QuoteCenter without having to sign up for Reuters Datalink packages.

How do I set up the Custom Indicator for the Ted Spread?

Open MetaStock
Select the Tools Menu
Select Indicator Builder
Click on New
Under Name Type Ted Spread
Under Formula type:

Security("Online:LIUSD3MD=",C)-(Security("Online:.IRX",C)/10)

Click on OK

These indicators do connect directly to the Reuters Datalink data servers to calculate the value.

You now have an Indicator for the Ted Spread.

If you would like to have 2 colors for the Ted Spread prices based on if the value went up or down from the day before use the formula below.

If(Security("Online:LIUSD3MD=",C)-(Security("Online:.IRX",C)/10)>=Ref(Security("Online:LIUSD3MD=",C)-(Security("Online:.IRX",C)/10),-1),Security("Online:LIUSD3MD=",C)-(Security("Online:.IRX",C)/10),0); If(Security("Online:LIUSD3MD=",C)-(Security("Online:.IRX",C)/10)<Ref(Security("Online:LIUSD3MD=",C)-(Security("Online:.IRX",C)/10),-1),Security("Online:LIUSD3MD=",C)-(Security("Online:.IRX",C)/10),0);